Viral Variant Escape
Investigate how changing environmental conditions drive the evolution, emergence, and extinction of viral variants. Adjust environmental pressures and observe which strains survive — and which don't. Aligned with NGSS HS-LS4-5.
Environment View
Each colored dot represents a virus particle. Colors indicate different strains. Watch how populations shift as the environment changes.
Strain Population Over Time
Environmental Pressures
Kills susceptible strains. Resistance varies between variants.
General immune pressure on all variants.
Each strain has a preferred temperature. Deviation reduces survival.
Higher = new variants emerge more frequently.
Live Statistics
Recent Events
How Environmental Change Drives Evolution
Throughout Earth's history, changes in environmental conditions have been the primary driver of evolutionary change. When environments shift — whether through natural climate change, human activity, or the introduction of new pressures like drugs or predators — species must adapt, move, or face extinction.
In this simulation, you control four environmental pressures that act as selective forces on a viral population:
- Antiviral Drug — Targets specific vulnerabilities. Strains with genetic resistance survive and reproduce, passing that trait to future generations. This mirrors real-world antibiotic and antiviral resistance, one of the most pressing public health challenges today.
- Immune Response — A broad pressure that affects all strains. Some variants may be naturally better at immune evasion, giving them a selective advantage.
- Temperature — Each strain has a thermal optimum. This models how climate change shifts species ranges and drives adaptation in real ecosystems.
- Mutation Rate — Controls how quickly new genetic variation is introduced. Higher mutation rates increase the pool of variants for natural selection to act upon — but most mutations are neutral or harmful.
Key question to investigate: How does the rate of environmental change affect outcomes? Gradual change may allow adaptation, while rapid change can overwhelm a population's ability to evolve — leading to extinction. Can you find the conditions where a new variant emerges, thrives, and drives all others extinct? What about conditions where all strains go extinct?